The Uganda 2025/26 budget analysis outlines an ambitious national agenda backed by Shs72.4 trillion. This budget sets the stage for implementing the Fourth National Development Plan. Finance Minister Matia Kasaija delivered a confident speech, highlighting stronger income levels, broader service delivery, and sustained economic growth.
He projected the economy to expand to Shs254.2 trillion ($66.1 billion). GDP per capita is expected to grow to $1,324. Kasaija credited this growth to peace, political stability, expanded infrastructure, and better access to services like health and education. He also highlighted improved life expectancy, now at 68.2 years. Poverty has declined from 24.5% to 16.1% since 2011. The percentage of Ugandans dependent on subsistence farming has dropped to 33%.
Despite these gains, economic experts called for caution. Aloysious Kittengo of SEATINI urged the government to invest more in income-generating sectors. He argued this would increase household spending power and tax contributions. Pascal Muhangi of CSBAG emphasized the need for GDP growth to outpace the country’s rising debt. According to him, recent gains came mostly from gold, coffee, and oil exports—sectors that require long-term diversification.
Infrastructure investment received special attention in the Uganda 2025/26 budget analysis. Kasaija announced that all border routes now have tarmac roads. Electricity generation has grown from 595 to 2,051 megawatts since 2010. Today, 57% of the population has access to power. Internet access rose to 53% in 2022, up from 1.8% in 2010.
Kasaija noted that Uganda’s economy is diversifying. The country no longer relies only on coffee, cotton, and copper. It now exports processed foods, steel, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, and dairy products. In the past 15 years, Uganda added 31 products to its export basket. By March 2025, total exports reached $11.8 billion—a 26% increase from the previous year.
The government allocated Shs11.44 trillion to social services such as health, education, and water. Health alone received Shs5.8 trillion. These funds will support primary care, improve reproductive health, and expand cancer and heart facilities. Education received Shs5.04 trillion to support 9.5 million learners in UPE, 995,000 in USE, and thousands more through the student loan scheme.
Social protection also received attention. The SAGE program got Shs811 billion. Another Shs404 billion went to other protection services. For wealth creation, the Parish Development Model received Shs1.05 trillion. Other funded programs include Emyooga, UDB, and Youth Livelihood initiatives. The government has now invested over Shs9 trillion in such schemes over the last decade.
However, concerns over execution remain. Local governments received only 11% of the total budget. District leader Linus Kayia said that share should increase to at least 30%. Jinja businessman Julius Kayiira criticized Uganda’s growing debt burden, warning it could limit future spending on social services.
Real estate developers welcomed infrastructure spending. Judy Rugasira of Knight Frank pointed to roads, power, and stadiums in Hoima and Lira as game-changers. These projects are unlocking land value and creating new investment corridors. She added that preparations for CHAN and AFCON27 will boost hospitality, housing, and commercial space in key districts.
Tourism and agro-industry are also benefiting. The government allocated Shs430 billion to tourism, plus Shs2.2 trillion for enabling infrastructure. These investments are expected to attract development near parks, airports, and cultural sites.
Despite these positives, rental tax reforms worry landlords. URA now limits deductible expenses to 50% of gross income. This policy hurts owners of high-cost properties, especially when rents go unpaid. Taxing accrued—rather than collected—income creates cash flow stress. Rugasira proposed raising the standard allowance or allowing real cost deductions. She also highlighted the burden of compliance systems like EFRIS on small landlords.
Voices from across the country added further perspective. Some residents praised health investments. Others criticized income disparities, heavy borrowing, and foreign business dominance. Teachers complained about salary gaps between arts and science educators. Still, several citizens welcomed tax waivers for new startups.
In summary, the Uganda 2025/26 budget analysis shows a country on a growth path but facing deep governance and delivery gaps. The budget outlines big ideas, but execution will define success. Transparency, local empowerment, and inclusive planning will be critical for turning this plan into real progress.
READ: Uganda National Budget 2025/2026 Approved at Shs72.3 Trillion